Impact of Demographics and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Variables on Clinical Trial Participation in Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma.

Prior studies have demonstrated that certain populations including older patients, racial/ethnic minority groups, and women are underrepresented in clinical trials. We performed a retrospective analysis of patients with Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) seen at MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) to investigate the association between trial participation, race/ethnicity, travel distance and neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES). Using patient addresses, we ascertained nSES variables on educational attainment, income, poverty, racial composition and housing at the census tract (CT) level. We also performed geospatial analysis to determine the geographic distribution of clinical trial participants and distance from patient residence to MDACC. We examined 3146 consecutive adult patients with NHL seen between January 2017 and December 2020. The study cohort was predominantly male and non-Hispanic white (NHW). The most common insurance types were private insurance and Medicare; only 1.1% of patients had Medicaid. There was a high overall participation rate of 30.5% with 20.9% enrolled in therapeutic trials. In univariate analyses, lower participation rates were associated with lower nSES including higher poverty rates and living in crowded households. Racial composition of CT was not associated with differences in trial participation. In multivariable analysis, trial participation varied significantly by histology and participation declined nonlinearly with age in the overall, follicular lymphoma and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) models. In the DLBCL subset, Hispanic patients had lower odds of participation than Whites (odds ratio 0.36 [95% confidence interval 0.21 - 0.62 p=0.001). In our large academic cohort, race, gender, insurance type, and nSES were not associated with trial participation, whereas age and diagnosis were.

Unraveling trends in schistosomiasis: deep learning insights into national control programs in China.

Objectives: To achieve the ambitious goal of eliminating schistosome infections, the Chinese government has implemented diverse control strategies. This study explored the progress of the 2 most recent national schistosomiasis control programs in an endemic area along the Yangtze River in China. Methods: We obtained village-level parasitological data from cross-sectional surveys combined with environmental data in Anhui Province, China from 1997 to 2015. A convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a hierarchical integro-difference equation (IDE) framework (i.e., CNN-IDE) was used to model spatio-temporal variations in schistosomiasis. Two traditional models were also constructed for comparison with 2 evaluation indicators: the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Results: The CNN-IDE model was the optimal model, with the lowest overall average MSPE of 0.04 and the CRPS of 0.19. From 1997 to 2011, the prevalence exhibited a notable trend: it increased steadily until peaking at 1.6 per 1000 in 2005, then gradually declined, stabilizing at a lower rate of approximately 0.6 per 1000 in 2006, and approaching zero by 2011. During this period, noticeable geographic disparities in schistosomiasis prevalence were observed; high-risk areas were initially dispersed, followed by contraction. Predictions for the period 2012 to 2015 demonstrated a consistent and uniform decrease. Conclusion: The proposed CNN-IDE model captured the intricate and evolving dynamics of schistosomiasis prevalence, offering a promising alternative for future risk modeling of the disease. The comprehensive strategy is expected to help diminish schistosomiasis infection, emphasizing the necessity to continue implementing this strategy.

Genetic correlations between liver fat content, metabolic health, and adiposity distribution in the Fels Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatic steatosis is known to be heritable, but its genetic basis is mostly uncharacterized. Steatosis is associated with metabolic and adiposity features; recent studies hypothesize that shared genetic effects between these traits could account for some of the unexplained heritability. This study aimed to quantify these genetic associations in a family-based sample of non-Hispanic white adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: 704 participants (18-95 years, 55.8% female) from the Fels Longitudinal Study with an MRI assessment of liver fat were included. Quantitative genetic analyses estimated the age- and sex-adjusted heritability of individual traits and the genetic correlations within trait pairs. Mean liver fat was 5.95% (SE = 0.23) and steatosis (liver fat >5.56%) was present in 29.8% of participants. Heritability (h2± SE) of steatosis was 0.72 ± 0.17 (p = 6.80e-6). All other traits including liver enzymes, fasting glucose, HOMA-IR, visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue (VAT, SAT), body mass index, body fat percent, waist circumference, lipids and blood pressure were also heritable. Significant genetic correlations were found between liver fat and all traits except aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and among most trait pairs. Highest genetic correlations were between liver fat and HOMA-IR (0.85 ± 0.08, p = 1.73e-8), fasting glucose and ALT (0.89 ± 0.26, p = 6.68e-5), and HOMA-IR with: waist circumference (0.81 ± 0.12, p = 3.76e-6), body fat percent (0.78 ± 0.12 p = 2.42e-5) and VAT (0.73 ± 0.07, p = 6.37e-8). CONCLUSIONS: Common genes may exist between liver fat accumulation, metabolic features and adiposity phenotypes.

Trends in Fatal Opioid-Related Overdose in American Indian and Alaska Native Communities, 1999-2021.

INTRODUCTION: Opioid-related overdose mortality rates have increased sharply in the U.S. over the past two decades, and inequities across racial and ethnic groups have been documented. Opioid-related overdose trends among American Indian and Alaska Natives require further quantification and assessment. METHODS: Observational, U.S. population-based registry data on opioid-related overdose mortality between 1999 and 2021 were extracted in 2023 using ICD-10 codes from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research multiple cause of death file by race, Hispanic ethnicity, sex, and age. Segmented time series analyses were conducted to estimate opioid-related overdose mortality growth rates among the American Indian and Alaska Native population between 1999 and 2021. Analyses were performed in 2023. RESULTS: Two distinct time segments revealed significantly different opioid-related overdose mortality growth rates within the overall American Indian and Alaska Native population, from 0.36 per 100,000 (95% CI=0.32, 0.41) between 1999 and 2019 to 6.5 (95% CI=5.7, 7.31) between 2019 and 2021, with the most pronounced increase among those aged 24-44 years. Similar patterns were observed within the American Indian and Alaska Native population with Hispanic ethnicity, but the estimated growth rates were generally steeper across most age groups than across the overall American Indian and Alaska Native population. Patterns of opioid-related overdose mortality growth rates were similar between American Indian and Alaska Native females and males between 2019 and 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Sharp increases in opioid-related overdose mortality rates among American Indian and Alaska Native communities are evident by age and Hispanic ethnicity, highlighting the need for culturally sensitive fatal opioid-related overdose prevention, opioid use disorder treatment, and harm-reduction efforts. Future research should aim to understand the underlying factors contributing to these high mortality rates and employ interventions that leverage the strengths of American Indian and Alaska Native culture, including the strong sense of community.

Persistent poverty and incidence-based melanoma mortality in Texas.

PURPOSE: Previous studies have shown that individuals living in areas with persistent poverty (PP) experience worse cancer outcomes compared to those living in areas with transient or no persistent poverty (nPP). The association between PP and melanoma outcomes remains unexplored. We hypothesized that melanoma patients living in PP counties (defined as counties with ≥ 20% of residents living at or below the federal poverty level for the past two decennial censuses) would exhibit higher rates of incidence-based melanoma mortality (IMM). METHODS: We used Texas Cancer Registry data to identify the patients diagnosed with invasive melanoma or melanoma in situ (stages 0 through 4) between 2000 and 2018 (n = 82,458). Each patient's PP status was determined by their county of residence at the time of diagnosis. RESULTS: After adjusting for demographic variables, logistic regression analyses revealed that melanoma patients in PP counties had statistically significant higher IMM compared to those in nPP counties (17.4% versus 11.3%) with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.35 (95% CI 1.25-1.47). CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the relationship between persistent poverty and incidence-based melanoma mortality rates, revealing that melanoma patients residing in counties with persistent poverty have higher melanoma-specific mortality compared to those residing in counties with transient or no poverty. This study further emphasizes the importance of considering area-specific socioeconomic characteristics when implementing place-based interventions to facilitate early melanoma diagnosis and improve melanoma treatment outcomes.

Assessment of a SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring program in El Paso, Texas, from November 2020 to June 2022.

The border city of El Paso, Texas, and its water utility, El Paso Water, initiated a SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring program to assess virus trends and the appropriateness of a wastewater monitoring program for the community. Nearly weekly sample collection at four wastewater treatment facilities (WWTFs), serving distinct regions of the city, was analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 genes using the CDC 2019-Novel coronavirus Real-Time RT-PCR diagnostic panel. Virus concentrations ranged from 86.7 to 268,000 gc/L, varying across time and at each WWTF. The lag time between virus concentrations in wastewater and reported COVID-19 case rates (per 100,00 population) ranged from 4-24 days for the four WWTFs, with the strongest trend occurring from November 2021 - June 2022. This study is an assessment of the utility of a geographically refined SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring program to supplement public health efforts that will manage the virus as it becomes endemic in El Paso.

Wastewater analysis of Mpox virus in a city with low prevalence of Mpox disease: an environmental surveillance study.

Background: Tracking infectious diseases at the community level is challenging due to asymptomatic infections and the logistical complexities of mass surveillance. Wastewater surveillance has emerged as a valuable tool for monitoring infectious disease agents including SARS-CoV-2 and Mpox virus. However, detecting the Mpox virus in wastewater is particularly challenging due to its relatively low prevalence in the community. In this study, we aim to characterize three molecular assays for detecting and tracking the Mpox virus in wastewater from El Paso, Texas, during February and March 2023. Methods: In this study, a combined approach utilizing three real-time PCR assays targeting the C22L, F3L, and F8L genes and sequencing was employed to detect and track the Mpox virus in wastewater samples. The samples were collected from four sewersheds in the City of El Paso, Texas, during February and March 2023. Wastewater data was compared with reported clinical case data in the city. Findings: Mpox virus DNA was detected in wastewater from all the four sewersheds, whereas only one Mpox case was reported during the sampling period. Positive signals were still observed in multiple sewersheds after the Mpox case was identified. Higher viral concentrations were found in the pellet than in the supernatant of wastewater. Notably, an increasing trend in viral concentration was observed approximately 1-2 weeks before the reporting of the Mpox case. Further sequencing and epidemiological analysis provided supporting evidence for unreported Mpox infections in the city. Interpretation: Our analysis suggests that the Mpox cases in the community is underestimated. The findings emphasize the value of wastewater surveillance as a public health tool for monitoring infectious diseases even in low-prevalence areas, and the need for heightened vigilance to mitigate the spread of Mpox disease for safeguarding global health. Funding: Center of Infectious Diseases at UTHealth, the University of Texas System, and the Texas Epidemic Public Health Institute. The content of this paper is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of these funding organizations.

Evaluation of a Targeted COVID-19 Community Outreach Intervention: Case Report for Precision Public Health.

BACKGROUND: Cameron County, a low-income south Texas-Mexico border county marked by severe health disparities, was consistently among the top counties with the highest COVID-19 mortality in Texas at the onset of the pandemic. The disparity in COVID-19 burden within Texas counties revealed the need for effective interventions to address the specific needs of local health departments and their communities. Publicly available COVID-19 surveillance data were not sufficiently timely or granular to deliver such targeted interventions. An agency-academic collaboration in Cameron used novel geographic information science methods to produce granular COVID-19 surveillance data. These data were used to strategically target an educational outreach intervention named "Boots on the Ground" (BOG) in the City of Brownsville (COB). OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of a spatially targeted community intervention on daily COVID-19 test counts. METHODS: The agency-academic collaboration between the COB and UTHealth Houston led to the creation of weekly COVID-19 epidemiological reports at the census tract level. These reports guided the selection of census tracts to deliver targeted BOG between April 21 and June 8, 2020. Recordkeeping of the targeted BOG tracts and the intervention dates, along with COVID-19 daily testing counts per census tract, provided data for intervention evaluation. An interrupted time series design was used to evaluate the impact on COVID-19 test counts 2 weeks before and after targeted BOG. A piecewise Poisson regression analysis was used to quantify the slope (sustained) and intercept (immediate) change between pre- and post-BOG COVID-19 daily test count trends. Additional analysis of COB tracts that did not receive targeted BOG was conducted for comparison purposes. RESULTS: During the intervention period, 18 of the 48 COB census tracts received targeted BOG. Among these, a significant change in the slope between pre- and post-BOG daily test counts was observed in 5 tracts, 80% (n=4) of which had a positive slope change. A positive slope change implied a significant increase in daily COVID-19 test counts 2 weeks after targeted BOG compared to the testing trend observed 2 weeks before intervention. In an additional analysis of the 30 census tracts that did not receive targeted BOG, significant slope changes were observed in 10 tracts, of which positive slope changes were only observed in 20% (n=2). In summary, we found that BOG-targeted tracts had mostly positive daily COVID-19 test count slope changes, whereas untargeted tracts had mostly negative daily COVID-19 test count slope changes. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of spatially targeted community interventions is necessary to strengthen the evidence base of this important approach for local emergency preparedness. This report highlights how an academic-agency collaboration established and evaluated the impact of a real-time, targeted intervention delivering precision public health to a small community.

Associations between Rest-Activity Rhythms and Liver Function Tests: The US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2011-2014.

Liver functions are regulated by the circadian rhythm; however, whether a weakened circadian rhythm is associated with impaired liver function is unclear. This study aims to investigate the association of characteristics of rest-activity rhythms with abnormal levels of biomarkers of liver function. Data were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2014. Seven rest-activity rhythm parameters were derived from 24 h actigraphy data using the extended cosine model and non-parametric methods. Multiple logistic regression and multiple linear regression models were used to assess the associations between rest-activity rhythm parameters and alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), gamma-glutamyl transaminase (GGT), albumin and bilirubin. Weakened overall rhythmicity characterized by a lower F statistic was associated with higher odds of abnormally elevated ALP (ORQ1vs.Q5: 2.16; 95% CI 1.19, 3.90) and GGT (ORQ1vs.Q5: 2.04; 95% CI 1.30, 3.20) and abnormally lowered albumin (ORQ1vs.Q5: 5.15; 95% CI 2.14, 12.38). Similar results were found for a lower amplitude, amplitude:mesor ratio, interdaily stability and intradaily variability. Results were robust to the adjustment of confounders and cannot be fully explained by individual rest-activity behaviors, including sleep and physical activity. Weakened rest-activity rhythms were associated with worse liver function as measured by multiple biomarkers, supporting a potential role of circadian rhythms in liver health.

U.S. Adolescent Rest-Activity patterns: insights from functional principal component analysis (NHANES 2011-2014).

BACKGROUND: Suboptimal rest-activity patterns in adolescence are associated with worse health outcomes in adulthood. Understanding sociodemographic factors associated with rest-activity rhythms may help identify subgroups who may benefit from interventions. This study aimed to investigate the association of rest-activity rhythm with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics in adolescents. METHODS: Using cross-sectional data from the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2014 adolescents (N = 1814), this study derived rest-activity profiles from 7-day 24-hour accelerometer data using functional principal component analysis. Multiple linear regression was used to assess the association between participant characteristics and rest-activity profiles. Weekday and weekend specific analyses were performed in addition to the overall analysis. RESULTS: Four rest-activity rhythm profiles were identified, which explained a total of 82.7% of variance in the study sample, including (1) High amplitude profile; (2) Early activity window profile; (3) Early activity peak profile; and (4) Prolonged activity/reduced rest window profile. The rest-activity profiles were associated with subgroups of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and household income. On average, older age was associated with a lower value for the high amplitude and early activity window profiles, but a higher value for the early activity peak and prolonged activity/reduced rest window profiles. Compared to boys, girls had a higher value for the prolonged activity/reduced rest window profiles. When compared to Non-Hispanic White adolescents, Asian showed a lower value for the high amplitude profile, Mexican American group showed a higher value for the early activity window profile, and the Non-Hispanic Black group showed a higher value for the prolonged activity/reduced rest window profiles. Adolescents reported the lowest household income had the lowest average value for the early activity window profile. CONCLUSIONS: This study characterized main rest-activity profiles among the US adolescents, and demonstrated that demographic and socioeconomic status factors may shape rest-activity behaviors in this population.

County-level artificial light at night (ALAN) in the contiguous US (2012-2019): spatial variations, temporal trends, and environmental justice analyses.

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is a growing environmental hazard with economic, ecological, and public health implications. Previous studies suggested a higher burden of light pollution and related adverse effects in disadvantaged communities. It is critical to characterize the geographic distribution and temporal trend of ALAN and identify associated demographic and socioeconomic factors at the population level to lay the foundation for environmental and public health monitoring and policy-making. We used satellite data from the Black Marble suite to characterize ALAN in all counties in contiguous US and reported considerable variations in ALAN spatiotemporal patterns between 2012 and 2019. As expected, ALAN levels were generally higher in metropolitan and coastal areas; however, several rural counties in Texas experienced remarkable increase in ALAN since 2012, while population-level ALAN burden also increased substantially in many metropolitan areas. Importantly, we found that during this period, although the overall ALAN levels in the USA declined modestly, the temporal trend of ALAN varied across areas with different racial/ethnic compositions: counties with a higher percentage of racial/ethnic minority groups, particularly Hispanic populations, exhibited significantly less decline. As a result, the differences in ALAN levels, as measured by the Black Marble product, across racial/ethnic groups became larger between 2012 and 2019. In conclusion, our study documented variations in ALAN spatiotemporal patterns across America and identified multiple population correlates of ALAN patterns that warrant further investigations. Future studies should identify underlying factors (e.g., economic development and decline, urban planning, and transition to newer lighting technologies such as light emitting diodes) that may have contributed to ALAN disparities in the USA.

Wastewater sequencing reveals community and variant dynamics of the collective human virome.

Wastewater is a discarded human by-product, but its analysis may help us understand the health of populations. Epidemiologists first analyzed wastewater to track outbreaks of poliovirus decades ago, but so-called wastewater-based epidemiology was reinvigorated to monitor SARS-CoV-2 levels while bypassing the difficulties and pit falls of individual testing. Current approaches overlook the activity of most human viruses and preclude a deeper understanding of human virome community dynamics. Here, we conduct a comprehensive sequencing-based analysis of 363 longitudinal wastewater samples from ten distinct sites in two major cities. Critical to detection is the use of a viral probe capture set targeting thousands of viral species or variants. Over 450 distinct pathogenic viruses from 28 viral families are observed, most of which have never been detected in such samples. Sequencing reads of established pathogens and emerging viruses correlate to clinical data sets of SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus, and monkeypox viruses, outlining the public health utility of this approach. Viral communities are tightly organized by space and time. Finally, the most abundant human viruses yield sequence variant information consistent with regional spread and evolution. We reveal the viral landscape of human wastewater and its potential to improve our understanding of outbreaks, transmission, and its effects on overall population health.

Alignment Between 24-h Light-Dark and Activity-Rest Rhythms Is Associated With Diabetes and Glucose Metabolism in a Nationally Representative Sample of American Adults.

OBJECTIVE: The alignment between environmental stimuli (e.g., dark, light) and behavior cycles (e.g., rest, activity) is an essential feature of the circadian timing system, a key contributor to metabolic health. However, no previous studies have investigated light-activity alignment in relation to glycemic control in human populations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The analysis included ∼7,000 adults (aged 20-80 years) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2011-2014) with actigraphy-measured, multiday, 24-h activity and light data. We used phasor analysis to derive phasor magnitude and phasor angle, which measures coupling strength and phase difference between the activity-rest and light-dark cycles, respectively. We used multinomial logistic regression and multiple linear regression to study phasor magnitude and phasor angle in relation to diabetes (primary outcome) and multiple secondary biomarkers of glycemic control. RESULTS: Lower alignment strength (i.e., a shorter phasor magnitude) and more delayed activity relative to the light cycle (i.e., a larger phasor angle) were both associated with diabetes. Specifically, compared with individuals in the quintiles indicating the most proper alignment (Q5 for phasor magnitude and Q1 for phasor angle), those in the quintiles with the most impaired alignment had a >70% increase in the odds of diabetes for phasor magnitude (odds ratio 1.76 [95% CI 1.39, 2.24]) and for phasor angle (1.73 [1.34, 2.25]). Similar associations were observed for biomarkers for glucose metabolism. The results were generally consistent across diverse sociodemographic and obesity groups. CONCLUSIONS: The alignment pattern between 24-h activity-rest and light-dark cycles may be a critical factor in metabolic health.

Artificial light at night and social vulnerability: An environmental justice analysis in the U.S. 2012-2019.

BACKGROUND: Artificial Light at Night (ALAN) is an emerging health risk factor that has been linked to a wide range of adverse health effects. Recent study suggested that disadvantaged neighborhoods may be exposed to higher levels of ALAN. Understanding how social disadvantage correlates with ALAN levels is essential for identifying the vulnerable populations and for informing lighting policy. METHODS: We used satellite data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Black Marble data product to quantify annual ALAN levels (2012-2019), and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to quantify social disadvantage, both at the US census tract level. We examined the relationship between the ALAN and SVI (overall and domain-specific) in over 70,000 tracts in the Contiguous U.S., and investigated the heterogeneities in this relationship by the rural-urban status and US regions (i.e., Northeast, Midwest, South, West). RESULTS: We found a significant positive relationship between SVI and ALAN levels. On average, the ALAN level in the top 20% most vulnerable communities was 2.46-fold higher than that in the 20% least vulnerable communities (beta coefficient (95% confidence interval) for log-transformed ALAN, 0.90 (0.88, 0.92)). Of the four SVI domains, minority and language status emerged as strong predictors of ALAN levels. Our stratified analysis showed considerable and complex heterogeneities across different rural-urban categories, with the association between greater vulnerability and higher ALAN primarily observed in urban cores and rural areas. We also found regional differences in the association between ALAN and both overall SVI and SVI domains. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggested ALAN as an environmental justice issue that may carry important public health implications. Funding National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

The social vulnerability index as a risk stratification tool for health disparity research in cancer patients: a scoping review.

PURPOSE: The social vulnerability index (SVI), developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is a novel composite measure encompassing multiple variables that correspond to key social determinants of health. The objective of this review was to investigate innovative applications of the SVI to oncology research and to employ the framework of the cancer care continuum to elucidate further research opportunities. METHODS: A systematic search for relevant articles was performed in five databases from inception to 13 May 2022. Included studies applied the SVI to analyze outcomes in cancer patients. Study characteristics, patent populations, data sources, and outcomes were extracted from each article. This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. RESULTS: In total, 31 studies were included. Along the cancer care continuum, five applied the SVI to examine geographic disparities in potentially cancer-causing exposures; seven in cancer diagnosis; fourteen in cancer treatment; nine in treatment recovery; one in survivorship care; and two in end-of-life care. Fifteen examined disparities in mortality. CONCLUSION: In highlighting place-based disparities in patient outcomes, the SVI represents a promising tool for future oncology research. As a reliable geocoded dataset, the SVI may inform the development and implementation of targeted interventions to prevent cancer morbidity and mortality at the neighborhood level.

Wastewater pandemic preparedness: Toward an end-to-end pathogen monitoring program.

Molecular analysis of public wastewater has great potential as a harbinger for community health and health threats. Long-used to monitor the presence of enteric viruses, in particular polio, recent successes of wastewater as a reliable lead indicator for trends in SARS-CoV-2 levels and hospital admissions has generated optimism and emerging evidence that similar science can be applied to other pathogens of pandemic potential (PPPs), especially respiratory viruses and their variants of concern (VOC). However, there are substantial challenges associated with implementation of this ideal, namely that multiple and distinct fields of inquiry must be bridged and coordinated. These include engineering, molecular sciences, temporal-geospatial analytics, epidemiology and medical, and governmental and public health messaging, all of which present their own caveats. Here, we outline a framework for an integrated, state-wide, end-to-end human pathogen monitoring program using wastewater to track viral PPPs.

Opioid-related mortality: Dynamic temporal and spatial trends by drug type and demographic subpopulations, Massachusetts, 2005-2021.

BACKGROUND: Fatal opioid-related overdoses (OOD) present significant public health challenges. Intuitive and replicable analytical approaches are needed to inform targeted public health responses. METHODS: We obtained fatal OOD data for 2005-2021 from the Massachusetts Registry of Vital Records and Statistics. We conducted heatmap analyses to assess trends in fatal OOD rates per 100,000 residents, visualizing rates by death year and decedent age at one-year intervals, stratifying by race/ethnicity, sex, rurality, and involved substances. We calculated Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to identify spatial clusters of OOD rates. RESULTS: Among 20,774 fatal OODs, rates were higher among males, and highly variable by race/ethnicity, age group, and rurality. While fatal OOD rates increased in urban before rural communities, rates were higher in rural communities by 2018-2019. Stimulant-related fatal OODs were elevated in 2020 and 2021. Fatal OOD rates involving fentanyl and stimulants increased precipitously and simultaneously in the non-Hispanic Black population in 2020 and 2021, with a bimodal age distribution peaking among those in their 40s and 60s. Elevated rates among 30-to-60 year old Hispanic residents were largely tied to synthetic opioids from 2015 to 2021. Spatial clusters were detected for prescription opioids, heroin, and stimulants in western Massachusetts. For synthetic opioids, hotspots became more ubiquitous across the state from 2016 to 2021, intensifying in southeastern Massachusetts. CONCLUSION: Our novel approach uncovered new time varying and spatial patterns in fatal OOD rates not previously reported. Identified shifts in fatal OOD rates by sex, age, and race/ethnicity can inform location-specific field actions targeting subpopulations at disproportionally high risk.

Reliability estimates for assessing meal timing derived from longitudinal repeated 24-hour dietary recalls.

BACKGROUND: Regulating meal timing may have efficacy for improving metabolic health for preventing or managing chronic disease. However, the reliability of measuring meal timing with commonly used dietary assessment tools needs characterization prior to investigating meal timing and health outcomes in epidemiologic studies. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the reliability of estimating meal timing parameters, including overnight fasting duration, the midpoint of overnight fasting time, the number of daily eating episodes, the period with the largest percentage of daily caloric intake, and late last eating episode (> 09:00 pm) from repeated 24-h dietary recalls (24HRs). METHODS: Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), Light's Kappa estimates, and 95% CIs were calculated from repeated 24HR administered in 3 epidemiologic studies: The United States-based Interactive Diet and Activity Tracking in AARP (IDATA) study (n = 996, 6 24HR collected over 12-mo), German EPIC-Potsdam Validation Study (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Potsdam Germany cohort) (n = 134, 12 24HR collected over 12-mo) and EPIC-Potsdam BMBF-II Study (Federal Ministry of Education and Research, "Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung") (n = 725, 4 24HR collected over 36 mo). RESULTS: Measurement reliability of overnight fasting duration based on a single 24HR was "poor" in all studies [ICC range: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.32 - 0.46; 95% CI: 0.43, 0.50]. Reliability was "moderate" with 3 24HR (ICC range: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.58 in IDATA, 0.62; 95% CI: 0.52, 0.69 in the EPIC-Potsdam Validation Study, and 0.72; 95% CI: 0.70-0.75 in the EPIC-Potsdam BMBF-II Study). Results were similar for the midpoint of overnight fasting time and the number of eating episodes. Reliability of measuring late eating was "fair" in IDATA (Light's Kappa: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.21, 0.39) and "slight" in the EPIC-Potsdam Validation study and the EPIC-Potsdam BMBF-II study (Light's Kappa: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.25 and 0.09; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.12, respectively). Reliability estimates differed by sex, BMI, weekday, and season of 24HR administration in some studies. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that ≥ 3 24HR over a 1-3-y period are required for reliable estimates of meal timing variables.

Small Area Forecasting of Opioid-Related Mortality: Bayesian Spatiotemporal Dynamic Modeling Approach.

BACKGROUND: Opioid-related overdose mortality has remained at crisis levels across the United States, increasing 5-fold and worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. The ability to provide forecasts of opioid-related mortality at granular geographical and temporal scales may help guide preemptive public health responses. Current forecasting models focus on prediction on a large geographical scale, such as states or counties, lacking the spatial granularity that local public health officials desire to guide policy decisions and resource allocation. OBJECTIVE: The overarching objective of our study was to develop Bayesian spatiotemporal dynamic models to predict opioid-related mortality counts and rates at temporally and geographically granular scales (ie, ZIP Code Tabulation Areas [ZCTAs]) for Massachusetts. METHODS: We obtained decedent data from the Massachusetts Registry of Vital Records and Statistics for 2005 through 2019. We developed Bayesian spatiotemporal dynamic models to predict opioid-related mortality across Massachusetts' 537 ZCTAs. We evaluated the prediction performance of our models using the one-year ahead approach. We investigated the potential improvement of prediction accuracy by incorporating ZCTA-level demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We identified ZCTAs with the highest predicted opioid-related mortality in terms of rates and counts and stratified them by rural and urban areas. RESULTS: Bayesian dynamic models with the full spatial and temporal dependency performed best. Inclusion of the ZCTA-level demographic and socioeconomic variables as predictors improved the prediction accuracy, but only in the model that did not account for the neighborhood-level spatial dependency of the ZCTAs. Predictions were better for urban areas than for rural areas, which were more sparsely populated. Using the best performing model and the Massachusetts opioid-related mortality data from 2005 through 2019, our models suggested a stabilizing pattern in opioid-related overdose mortality in 2020 and 2021 if there were no disruptive changes to the trends observed for 2005-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Our Bayesian spatiotemporal models focused on opioid-related overdose mortality data facilitated prediction approaches that can inform preemptive public health decision-making and resource allocation. While sparse data from rural and less populated locales typically pose special challenges in small area predictions, our dynamic Bayesian models, which maximized information borrowing across geographic areas and time points, were used to provide more accurate predictions for small areas. Such approaches can be replicated in other jurisdictions and at varying temporal and geographical levels. We encourage the formation of a modeling consortium for fatal opioid-related overdose predictions, where different modeling techniques could be ensembled to inform public health policy.

Associations between actigraphy-derived rest-activity rhythm characteristics and hypertension in United States adults.

People with disrupted circadian rhythms, such as shift workers, have shown a higher risk of hypertension. However, it is unclear whether more subtle differences in diurnal rest-activity rhythms in the population are associated with hypertension. Clarifying the association between the rest-activity rhythm, a modifiable behavioural factor, and hypertension could provide insight into preventing hypertension and possibly cardiovascular diseases. In this study, we investigated the association between rest-activity rhythm characteristics and hypertension in a large representative sample of United States adults. Cross-sectional data were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2014 (N = 6726; mean [range] age 49 [20-79] years; 52% women). Five rest-activity rhythm parameters (i.e., pseudo F statistic, amplitude, mesor, amplitude:mesor ratio, and acrophase) were derived from 24-h actigraphy data using the extended cosine model. We performed multiple logistic regression to assess the associations between the rest-activity rhythm parameters and hypertension. Subgroup analysis stratified by age, gender, race/ethnicity, body mass index and diabetes status was also conducted. A weakened overall rest-activity rhythm, characterised by a lower F statistic, was associated with higher odds of hypertension (odds ratio quintile 1 versus quintile 5 [OR Q1vs.Q5 ] 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-2.05; p trend < 0.001). Similar results were found for lower amplitude (OR Q1vs.Q5 1.51, 95% CI 1.13-2.03; p trend = 0.01) and amplitude:mesor ratio (OR Q1vs.Q5 1.34, 95% CI 1.01-1.78; p trend = 0.03). The results were robust to the adjustment of confounders, individual behaviours including physical activity levels and sleep duration and appeared consistent across subgroups. Possible interaction between the rest-activity rhythm and body mass index was found. Our results support an association between weakened rest-activity rhythms and higher odds of hypertension.